(CBS Local) – The 146th round of the Kentucky Derby takes place at Churchill Downs this Saturday, September 5th. In a strange year, "The Run For The Roses" is the return leg of the Triple Crown after the Belmont Stakes in June. Tiz the Law, winner at Belmont Park, is the overwhelming favorite with 5-8 chances to win on Saturday. In the draw on Tuesday, however, he was placed 17th in the starting gate.
In the last 145 races of this race, no horse has won from this post. However, there is reason to believe that Barclay Tagg's colt is just the horse that can break this streak and actually play to its strengths.
“Number 17 is really an anomaly. Since 2008 horses have won the Kentucky Derby from positions 15, 16, 18, 19 and 20, "said Gene Menez, Senior Writer at SportsLine, in an interview with Katie Johnston of CBS Local. “With Tiz the Law he is far superior to the other horses in the field on Saturday. He can absolutely win. Actually, I think Post 17 is great for him because he's a horse that loves to be outside. He doesn't want to be behind other horses so I think this will play in his favor. "
You can find more analysis of the Kentucky Derby in the SportsLine section
Fans saw what Tiz the Law can do after winning the Belmont by four lengths a few months ago. Interestingly, he is booked in the starting gate by the two horses most likely to push him to victory: Honor A.P. and Authentic. Honor A.P., trained by John A. Shirreffs and ridden by Mike E. Smith, has the second best odds at 5: 1. Authentic is just behind with 8-1. Menez says the fight will be key when the gates open as all three favorites are so close to start off.
"When the gates open on Saturday you will want to keep an eye on the four outside posts as they are the four main competitors in the race," said Menez. "You mention Authentic and Honor A.P. on both sides of Tiz the Law. Authentic has to go, he is a speed horse that likes to be ahead. If he doesn't go from this far-flung outpost he risks staying outside, so he has to go. As I said, Tiz the Law likes to be outside. His main goal, and the main goal of jockey Manny Franco, will be to save as much ground as possible. But he doesn't want to be behind horses and he doesn't want to be inside. From the 17th post onwards, it's unlikely he's inside anyway. Honor A.P. will likely get a little off the pace that he wouldn't mind standing a little behind Tiz the Law. He must try to chase Tiz the Law. "
In the end, however, Menez believes that if fans tune in on Saturday, they'll likely see Tiz the Law continue down the path of historic greatness.
“They call the Kentucky Derby the most exciting two minutes in the sport for a reason. That's because for 120 seconds you see the best 3-year-old colt in the country chasing fame around Churchill Downs, ”said Menez. "I think what you're going to see on Saturday is the crowning glory of a potentially great horse in Tiz the Law. He's already won a Triple Crown leg in the Belmont Stakes. If he wins the second leg on Saturday, he's going to preakness Stakes and has a chance to win the Triple Crown. "
The Kentucky Derby starts at around 7:01 pm. EST / PST on Saturday.